New Blog

My new blog is online. See you there! :)

https://ishneich.wordpress.com/

Are You A European? The EU enters a dramatic new phase.

On the 1^st November 2014, the new government of Europe took office.

Their main task? To transcend national grievances and bitter rivalries, and forge a unified European identity, while fending off renewed political and economic threats from within and without the union, and restarting a shattered economy. No biggy, then!

President Jean-Claude Juncker and his Commission, after many hearings and much scrutinising from European Union member states and the European Parliament, have officially taken over from José Manuel Barroso, and Europe has entered a new chapter.

Of course, over in the UK, it is not the new administration, its ambitious agenda, its fascinating characters, and its difficult starting situation, which is making headlines – UKIP is.

This is because the EU is complicated, and frustrated people don’t want to hear complicated explanations. UKIP offers a simplified solution to the British people’s woes: It’s all the EU’s fault.

Local scapegoating, stereotyping and finger pointing has blinded much of the mainstream British media to the drama and significance of European politics. Instead of looking at evolving and readjusting the EU, we find ourselves stuck in an uninformed and repetitive debate over whether or not we made a mistake joining the union in 1973.

So here is a quick, hopefully fairly streamlined rundown of what’s really happening across the continent of which you may or may not believe we are a part, how we got here, and where we might be going.

Here, also, is a call to arms for all those people who believe Europe is an amazing place which deserves a suitably amazing system of political unity.

A photo I took of Vienna, Austria, this summer, while hopping from cheap hostel to cheap hostel with friends.

EU in a Nutshell

This is a good intro to how the EU currently functions, warts and all.

The European Project emerged out of a continent shattered by war. Its resultant supranational institutions (Mainly, the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, which turned into the six-member European Economic Community in 1957, the European Community in 1967, and then the European Union in 1992) were the product of negotiations and compromises, meaning they were unwieldy and convoluted, but the best way of addressing each party’s interests.

The signing of the ECSC in 1951, with Robert Schuman in the centre.

Robert Schuman (1886-1963) and Jean Monnet (1888-1979), with the contributions of such heavy-hitters as Winston Churchill, Konrad Adenauer and Joseph Bech, were the main architects of the European Project, realising that the only way to end the chaos of the European continent was unity. The now-famous Schuman Declaration laid out the groundwork for continent-wide cooperation and ambition, saying "The contribution which an organised and living Europe can bring to civilisation will be indispensable for the maintenance of peaceful relations." Markets were fused, joint projects embarked upon.

   

Monnet’s mantra throughout the painstaking project was: “Continue, continue, there is no future for the people of Europe other than in union.”

And it was the interest of the European people, not the continent’s ancient nations and states, that he continued to emphasise: “We are not forming coalitions of states, we are uniting men.”

A European Parliament was opened in 1979, and the Community expanded in a number of waves, spitting in the face of realist theories saying states would never voluntarily sacrifice state sovereignty in the name of a liberal project. Croatia was the most recent state to join in 2013, bring the number of EU member states to 28.

Croatia joins the EU, July 2013. From World Review.

The UK joined the European Community alongside Denmark and the Republic of Ireland in 1973 under Edward Heath, despite the fierce opposition of French premier Charles de Gaulle up to that point. De Gaulle (perhaps quite rightly) warned that British foot-dragging might doom the European Project and vetoed British applications to join in 1963 and 1967.

The Guardian's analysis of UK entry to the European Community in 1973.

But the UK did join, and helped oversee the continued expansion and development of what become the EU. Policies and ventures were embarked on: in farming, in foreign aid, even in space exploration.

Then, in 2008, global financial crisis struck Europe hard, particularly shaking the foundations of Europe’s fledgling currency, the Euro (which had been adopted by some member states in 1999). Commitment to European Project has plummeted as confidence has been shaken, and the EU faces its greatest existential crisis.

A Greek anti-austerity demonstration in 2012. From The Telegraph.

Part of the issue is that the ‘men in grey suits’ striding the European corridors of power in Brussels for a long time have not have the charisma or media coverage to effectively fend off the public outrage being fuelled by Eurosceptic parties like UKIP and the French Front National. German Chancellor Angela Merkel seems to have filled the vacuum as the face of Europe – which, right now, is also the face of austerity and economic ‘belt-tightening’.

From Press TV and RT

The European Commission, which is effectively the government and civil service of the EU, has not had particularly strong or rousing leadership since the like of Roy Jenkins (President from 1977-81, and the only British Commission President to date) and the Frenchman Jacques Delors (1985-94), whose clashes with Margaret Thatcher over the future of the continent became legendary.

Now, Jean-Claude Juncker is taking the reins of the European Commission. Will he and his 27-strong team be able to steer the continent through what may be one its most turbulent times yet?

From The Guardian

The Juncker Commission (2014-2019)

From Euractiv

The Commission is made up of 28 commissioners (including the President), one nominated by each member state, and has a five-year mandate. Each commissioner is assigned a specific area to oversee (Like ministers in a government) and are asked to set aside national interests for the sake of the greater European good. How does the Juncker Commission shape up?

From Acumen

Jean-Claude Juncker: President of the European Commission

One of Juncker's campaign videos

A former prime minister of Luxembourg, Juncker is held in Brussels and across Europe with both hopeful and sceptical eyes. He is a pragmatist through and through, and with some reporting that politics is his only hobby and that he gets a kick out of the nitty-gritty of negotiation. Unlike many EU bureaucrats, he has a statesman-like air, and is not afraid to present ambitious and innovative ideas to the often-stagnant corridors of Brussels.

During his campaign for the leadership, Juncker insisted that at least 40% of his Commission should be women. After tricky and lengthy negotiations, he managed to secure his nine female commissioners, although he admitted he had hoped for a more even gender distribution.

He also explicitly placed the ‘British problem’ high in his agenda, assuring the UK that our needs would be accommodated so long as we remain a firm member of the EU. David Cameron nonetheless spearheaded an embarrassing attempt to reject Juncker’s nomination as president, calling on European heads of state to veto him despite the fact that Juncker’s political party (The centre-right European People’s Party, or EPP) are the largest party in the European Parliament. The UK and Hungary ended up being Juncker’s only opposition,the other 26 member states respecting his legitimacy.

Peter Schrank, The Economist

Juncker could well be the man for the job as the EU seeks to regain its confidence and momentum – although, of course, we cannot know until his Commission is in full swing.

Frans Timmermans: First Vice-President of the European Commission

One of Juncker’s first acts has been to create a deputy president post – that of the First Vice-President. Former Dutch foreign minister Frans Timmermans, is Juncker’s choice as deputy. A social democrat, Timmermans will assist Juncker in ensuring the Commission is running smoothly and effectively. They both know that the EU cannot afford many mistakes over the next five years.

Timmermans made the news after a highly emotional speech following the downing of Malaysian Airlines flight MH17 in July. 193 of the 298 passengers were Dutch.

Federica Mogherini: High Representative

Former left-wing Italian foreign minister Federica Mogherini replaces the British peer Baroness Catherine Ashton as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security (Catchy title, I know).

The High Representative is essentially the EU’s foreign secretary, heading the European External Action Service (EEAS) and representing the European Commission abroad.

Mogherini’s appointment was controversial, with some calling her young, inexperienced, and unprepared to deal with a resurgent and aggressive Russia. But Mogherini has already impressed, standing her ground in front of parliamentary scrutiny, and yesterday issuing a statement condemning the “illegal and illegitimate” elections being held in Russian-backed rebel areas of Ukraine.

Jonathan Hill: Commissioner for Financial Stability and Regulation

Other than the three most prominent members of the Commission, one person of note includes the UK’s Lord Jonathan Hill of Oareford, who has received criticism both in the UK and in Brussels for his perceived lack of credibility. Some considered Hill’s nomination to be a snub to the EU (‘Lord Who?’), but Juncker nonetheless honoured the British desire for responsibility over finances and gave Hill oversight of financial stability and regulation.

Despite being buffeted by negative reviews all round, Hill managed to impress the European Parliament with his calm assurances of his commitment to the European cause, and to the stability of all European currencies. Praise, however, was quickly replaced by more criticism when Hill’s answers were dubbed vague and unclear, and he was swiftly recalled to Parliament for yet another scathing hearing.

Eventually, however, the Parliament gave their approval, and Hill took his place in the Commission. Now, he stands to be a key player in of European politics, as he is required to dance between the needs of Cameron in London and Juncker in Brussels. Keep an eye on this one!

Meanwhile, in the UK…

UKIP's Nigel Farage: "I think this will be the last Commission that governs Britain."

The issue of Europe has torn at the fabric of the Conservative party since the UK’s accession to the European Community, but in more recent years the European question has spilled out into mainstream British politics.

Now, UKIP and Eurosceptic Tories on one side, and the Lib Dems, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru on the other, have caught moderate Conservative and Labour MPs in their crossfire.

Panicking at the rise of UKIP, David Cameron (Who has overand over and over and over insisted on his support of a ‘reformed Europe’, despite warnings from Merkel to pipe down) has pledged to bring about a referendum on EU membership in 2015.

Fuel was added to the Eurosceptic fire this Ocotber when adjustments in EU budgeting meant the UK was asked for an additional £1.7 billion as a result of its strong economic recovery.

(Not going to lie, EU, your timing was horrific.)

Also in October, the proposal to officially put the referendum into action was cut off at the source when the Lib Dems blocked it, while the incoming SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, shocked Westminster with calls for the right for Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland to veto an EU exit if they so choose.

But the momentum is already there: it has been generally accepted that a referendum on EU membership is now inevitable. Europhiles and Eurosceptics alike are preparing for the campaigns of their political lives.

The Benefits of being European

Much of the Eurosceptic argument is based on oversimplified numbers: UK puts in lots of money. EU gives hardly any back. The £1.7 billion bill is a prime example.

This is wrong on a number of levels, both economically and ethically.

While the UK does undoubtedly get less money back directly from the European Commission than it puts in, the indirect effects of the British contribution are profound.

The UK has saved untold billions as a result of its membership of the Single Market and European trade deals, allowing interaction between member states and their citizens with minimal fuss, red tape, or costly bureaucracy. New markets have been opened up, and industries like farming and fishing are being protected by the monumental (and controversial) budget allocated to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). All the while, environmental guidelines prevent national unsustainable and irresponsible treatment of the land.

From EU Observer.

EU-funded educational schemes (Like ERASMUS) open up the continent’s schools, colleges and universities to one another. Joint research projects have flourished.

Oxford University was the Times Higher Education Supplement's top European University in 2012-13.

In addition, the EU has helped fund hundreds of British ‘regional development projects’, infrastructural, social and cultural schemes that would otherwise have gone unsupported. Some examples in Scotland alone you might not have expected include a number of roads and offshore energy projects in the Highlands, public transport investment in Angus, renewable energy centres in the Central Belt, and educational programmes to change attitudes regarding the Roma population.

From The Scotsman.

EU foreign policy is severely underfunded, but slowly the European External Action Service (EEAS) is expanding its horizons and providing a joint front in building security (e.g. Kosovo), supporting humanitarian development (e.g. Central African Republic), and combating threats from abroad (e.g. Somali pirates).

A promo video from EEAS.

The UK also has great influence in European organisations like the European Space Agency (ESA) and the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN), partly as a result of its EU membership.

Launch of the ESA's Vega rocket from French Guiana in 2011.

The European Council, which is now chaired by former Polish president Donald Tusk and brings the member state leads together at a round table, always has a notable British presence. (Unless the Euro is being discussed)

Meanwhile, 73 of the 751 MEPs in the European Parliament are British – this is the third highest number allocated to any member state, after Germany (with 99) and France (with 74). European Parliament motions simply do not go by without a British voice being heard.

As a single unit, the EU can be a formidable and effective force for good. Environmental challenges an only be met on a supranational level; the EU provides vast resources to foreign aid, supporting the development on emerging states; and together the European states make up the largest trading power in the world. Harness these, and Europe will be taken more seriously as a global player.

From New Statesman.

And on a supranational level, the contributions of the stronger, more secure member states go far in supporting and elevating the weaker states. This has (wrongly) been a cause of frustration for many. Consider the opportunities open to citizens from the UK, France, Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands in terms of jobs, travel, social security and quality of life, and compare them to the relative conditions of the people in slowly emerging (or re-emerging) economies like Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, the Czech Republic or Slovakia.

The EU's 2012 funding, broken down by The Guardian.

Does the fact that we happened to be born in the wealthy north-west as opposed to the poorer south-east mean we’re entitled to more? If somebody told you the government was going to stop investing in Glaswegian food banks because of the complaints of bankers in Edinburgh, would you accept that?

If there is to be one Europe, there should be one set of expectations, opportunities and rights for all Europeans. To be united, states need to stop bickering and start aiding each other for the good of their people.

Also, if we look at the relative size of the EU budget, we begin to see just how much of a miracle worker the EU currently is.

The UK’s total expenditure in 2014-15 is expected to be £732 billion. £222 billion of that goes into social security. £38 billion will go into defence.

The UK’s contribution to the EU is about £11.3 billion (including last month’s £1.7 billion bill).

The EU’s total budget in 2013 was €148.5 billion (about £116 billion). This is divided between 500 million Europeans.

The US Federal budget in 2013 was $3,454.6 billion (about £2,160 billion). There are about 300 million Americans.

Suddenly, the £1.7 billion bill to David Cameron doesn’t seem as bank-breaking.

The European Dream

The EU is flawed, of that there is no doubt. It does not inspire Europeans in the way that it should. It is not democratic enough to be truly all-inclusive. Its leadership is rarely assertive enough to give the impression of the EU as a major world player.

But the EU has not reached its end point. Continued support, scrutiny, evolution, and revolution are required in Europe’s inner workings if the European Project is to survive.

It should not be up to dull grey-suited men to decide the path our continent will take, and under no circumstances should far-right isolationists start calling the shots.

Only the European people can shape the European Union into its true form. And how to we do that? By keeping informed, by demanding reform,by making European politics engaging and all-inclusive.

Are you a European?

To that I say yes – and I hope, five years from now, that I will be able to say so again with even more confidence.

Split, Croatia. The EU's newest member.

Rise of the 45

In 1745, the Jacobite rebellion nearly succeeded in tearing Scotland out of the United Kingdom.

While the Jacobites’ main objectives were the restoration of the Stewart/Stuart monarchy (In the form of the dashing Bonnie Prince Charlie) and the reestablishment of Catholicism as the dominant faith, one of their other defining aims was ‘Prosperity For Scotland, And No Union’. The 1707 Act of Union with England and its empire had delivered none of its promises, and rebellion was the result.

After securing the support of many Highland clans, Bonnie Prince Charlie and his lieutenants surged south. They took Edinburgh, establishing a loose grip on Scotland, and surged into England looking to consolidate their gains.

They failed.

Two hundred and sixty-nine years later, Scotland held its referendum on independence.

The campaigns were fierce yet peaceful, the outcome was by no means secure as the SNP and Greens gathered support in all corners of the nation. Turnout was a historic and unprecedented 85%. On Referendum Night, the 18^th September 2014, immense numbers of Scots crowded around TV sets, squeezed into heaving pubs, roamed the streets draped in saltires or union flags, and awaited the result. The vote concluded: 55% No, 45% Yes.

Despair and disillusionment on the Yes side was prominent the next day. An oppressive fog enveloped Edinburgh, and a tense stand-off took place in Glasgow’s George Square. Alarming political news seeped out of the media: Alex Salmond resigned as first minister; UK party leaders (Mainly Ed Miliband) cast doubt over their pledges for further devolution; a Tory rebellion gave voice to anti-devolution MPs in Westminster determined to challenge decentralization. Out of this instability emerged a group called ‘We Are The 45%’, later simply dubbing themselves ‘The 45’. They have gathered a massive social media following and pledged to carry on the fight for independence.

Will they fail as well?

Thankfully, the historical comparisons between Bonnie Prince Charlie’s ‘45’ and Facebook’s ‘45’ are fairly weak, but the coincidental titling certainly caught my eye, and made me question where the new ‘45’ movement was heading.

I must admit, on post-referendum day I was feeling pretty awful – surprisingly so. The incredible buzz on the streets of Edinburgh the previous day had abruptly died, and suddenly over 1,600,000 Scots had plunged from a political high to devastating low. When I saw ‘We Are The 45%’ pop up on Facebook, I immediately pressed ‘like’.

It seemed like a sign of solidarity, a reassuring symbol that Scotland’s newly politicized population would not fizzle away.

Now, after a few of days of painful thought, I cannot help but feel concerned at the direction ‘The 45’ are taking. It seems that they are struggling to move on and accept the vote, and that makes me and many other Yes voters coming to terms with the No vote quite uncomfortable.

In his recent article, BBC correspondent Allan Little claimed that two Scotlands hademerged. At first, that was true, but now the situation is more complicated. There appear to be a number of different mindsets emerging as the referendum result soaks in:

The Diehard 45%

This branch will not let the idea of independence die. They have seized upon Alex Salmond’s suggestion that Scotland might not need another referendum if Yes support and No disillusionment continue to grow. They have replaced their bright blue ‘Yes’ twibbons and window signs with dark purple ‘45’ ones instead, and have planned future rallies. For them, the Yes campaign continues.

From The Independent

The Moderate 45%

This branch are still feeling the No result. It hurts to think about, and they will continue to be proud of their support for Yes Scotland, but they have accepted the referendum result and are willing to move on. Their sympathies lie with ‘The 45’, and they will display some support for the movement, but they believe that the only realistic routes now lie in devo-max or a distant future referendum.

From The Independent

The Reconciliators

This branch have abandoned their previous allegiance, whether to Yes or No, for the good of Scotland in the UK. They have acknowledged the democratic will of the people and believe that only a united, undivided Scotland can have a prosperous future. We need to move on from the referendum, they say, and embrace the new Scotland which has emerged from it without division. They broadly support devo-max or UK-wide federalism.

From The Daily Record

The Green Movement

The timing of the referendum was almost perfect for Green Yes supporters, what with the world-wide People’s Climate March (Including Edinburgh's contribution) taking place just three days after the vote. This allowed the political energy generated by the referendum to be channelled into something positive, and the Greens are building upon this momentum to push for greater activism and visibility in Scottish politics. Their attitude is generally Reconciliatory, or Moderate 45%. Since the referendum, membership of the Scottish Green Party has exploded (relative to previous years, and alongside the SNP and SSP). They will push for Scottish devo-max or UK federalism, with some members hoping another referendum is on the horizon.

The Regretful 55%

Some No voters viewed the mixed messages coming out of Westminster regarding devo-plus, devo-max and federalism, with great alarm, and started to regret crossing the No box. They are frightened by Nigel Farage’s talk that he’s sick of “TheScottish tail wagging the English dog” and by media attention shifting from Scotland to regional England. The Regretful 55% appear to be largely made up of Undecided voters who sided with No at the last minute.

The Moderate 55%

The majority of No voters are proud of their defence of the Union, and believe they have done their job well. The main task for them now is turning their attention away from the streets of Scotland to the halls of power in London, and pushing for Westminster to follow through with their promises for Scotland. (Click the link to sign a petition to Cameron, Clegg and Miliband) The Moderate 55% see further devolution or UK federalism as their future goal.

From New Statesman

The Diehard 55%

A minority of the 2,000,000 No voters are so delighted by the No vote that they have pledged their full support to Westminster and opposition to ‘the 45’ movement. They believe London knows best and that the most important thing now is to move out of referendum mode with no trace of ‘Yes Scotland’ or ‘the 45’ holding them back.

From The Scottish Sun

The Violent

Some people don’t care about politics and are simply using it as a platform for violence.

From The Daily Record

So that’s my broad analysis of the current situation.

Exciting and troubling times lie ahead for Scotland. ‘The 45’ movement is a particularly interesting result of the referendum, and worth watching. Will they overstretch themselves, as Bonnie Prince Charlie did, and see their campaign wither? Or will they push on further, becoming more active and loud, never letting Scotland forget how close it came to breaking away?

Scottish politics has entered a new era, and UK politics, in its own ponderous fashion, seems to be following suite.

All I can say is, it seems a great time to start a politics blog!